Social Security COLA increase expected in 2026

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By
Daniel Burke-Aguero
Daniel is a contributor at Mindset. He is a professor at the University of Missouri.
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Photo by Barbara Burgess on Unsplash

The Social Security Administration is set to announce the cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) for 2026 on October 15, based on the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) from July through September.

Why it matters: The COLA helps Social Security benefits keep pace with inflation, but Medicare premium hikes may offset the increase for many beneficiaries, especially those with lower benefits.

By the numbers:

  • Current estimates suggest a 2.57% COLA increase for 2026, adding roughly $50 per month to the average Social Security benefit.
  • Medicare Part B premiums are projected to rise by 11.6%, potentially absorbing the entire COLA for beneficiaries receiving $800 or less per month.
  • Retirees would need an extra $370 per month to match the buying power they had in 2010.

The SSA will also unveil key changes to the Social Security program for 2026, including the wage cap for Social Security taxes, the maximum monthly benefit, the earnings-test limit, and the amount of earnings needed to earn work credits.

The impact: Low-income beneficiaries, including children, spouses, and SSI recipients, will be significantly affected by the Medicare premium hike, with some receiving just $1 to $3 more each month after the COLA.

The bigger picture: Social Security and Medicare play critical roles in the financial stability of many Americans, with over 74 million people relying on these benefits. Understanding and preparing for these adjustments is essential for recipients to maintain their standard of living.

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Daniel is a contributor at Mindset. He is a professor at the University of Missouri.